By Adnan Obuz

Hey there, in the fast-moving world of markets, Adnan Obuz is taking a measured approach by skipping the intense SpaceX IPO hype unfolding right now in 2026. With the offering priced at $135 per share, targeting a record $75 billion raise and valuation near $1.77 trillion or more, the excitement is understandable — but not something I’m chasing.

I’ve seen enough cycles to know that when the crowd rushes in with euphoria, including talk of loans to buy shares, it’s time to step back and wait for clearer opportunities. This isn’t about doubting SpaceX’s incredible achievements. It’s about disciplined capital allocation that prioritizes long-term resilience over short-term FOMO.

Who Should Read This

Investors, traders, executives in resource sectors, and anyone navigating public markets who wants practical insights on hype versus value. Whether you’re evaluating IPOs or refining your overall strategy, this piece offers grounded perspective.

Why It Matters

In today’s environment of record valuations and rapid liquidity shifts, staying disciplined protects capital and positions you for better entries later. Hype creates winners in the moment but often leaves lessons for those who wait.

The Current SpaceX IPO Landscape

SpaceX is set for a Nasdaq listing around June 12 under ticker SPCX. It’s aiming for significant retail participation — up to 30% of the shares — far above the usual 5-10%. That’s creating massive buzz, with adjusted rules for faster index inclusion and other mechanics.

While the long-term vision around reusability, Starlink, and orbital opportunities is compelling, the near-term sentiment feels overheated. Reports of enthusiastic retail demand signal classic top conditions I’ve noted in past cycles.

Lessons from Coinbase and Other Hype Cycles

Remember Coinbase’s 2021 debut? Shares opened around $381 and hit highs near $430, only to face sharp declines later that year amid shifting market conditions. Many who piled in at peak enthusiasm learned tough lessons about timing.

SpaceX joins a collection of similar signals in my observation. The best opportunities frequently emerge once the initial distribution and excitement settle, allowing fundamentals to guide pricing more clearly.

Adnan Obuz on Chamath Palihapitiya’s SpaceX Deep Dive: Respect for Vision, Caution on Timing

I just finished reading Chamath Palihapitiya’s impressive new Substack deep dive on SpaceX — a thoughtful, research-heavy piece (over 120 pages) that deserves serious attention.

You can read it here: https://chamath.substack.com/p/spacex

Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion and commentary based on public information and market observations. It is not financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals.

Where Adnan Obuz Nods in Strong Agreement

Chamath powerfully highlights SpaceX’s transformative achievement: reducing the cost of reaching orbit by approximately 20x — from NASA Shuttle-era levels of around $54,500 per kilogram down to $2,720. This reusability-driven moat, combined with Starlink generating recurring revenue at software-like margins, stands as genuine proof of concept.

I fully agree that opening a low-cost “route to orbit” is analogous to Vasco da Gama’s historic sea route. It unlocks massive downstream opportunities in global connectivity, orbital AI compute, and critical minerals. The long-term vision for space infrastructure is compelling and represents exactly the kind of innovation that advances human capability.

My Perspective: Vision vs. Timing and Valuation Discipline

Where I offer a complementary view — not disagreement, because Chamath’s research and Elon’s execution track record speak for themselves — is on near-term psychology and entry discipline.

In my experience, the best risk-adjusted opportunities in transformative companies often emerge after the initial euphoria settles, not at the peak of hype and distribution. Chamath’s piece makes a strong long-term case. My caution, as shared in recent posts on the $350B liquidity shift and skipping the IPO frenzy, centers on the unprecedented scale of this IPO combined with aggressive retail allocation pushes, rule adjustments, and valuations that price in enormous future successes before they fully materialize.

I’m not saying SpaceX won’t deliver on the orbital compute and connectivity vision long-term. I’m saying, from a portfolio resilience standpoint, I prefer to observe how the market digests this distribution and wait for more measured entry points — much like the Coinbase experience where shares launched near $430 only to face significant pullbacks later in the same year.

Why This Matters for Investors Right Now

This IPO doesn’t happen in isolation. As outlined in my earlier pieces, it contributes to significant liquidity dynamics that are pressuring concentrated mega-cap holdings. Chamath’s bullish fundamental thesis strengthens the why behind the innovation; my framework focuses on the when and at what price for prudent positioning.

Practical Reminder (3-Step Playbook):

Audit your concentration in the names absorbing this capital demand.
Watch for rotation into undervalued or resilient sectors once initial hype cools.
Maintain a prepared watchlist for quality opportunities at rational valuations.

Final Nod to Chamath

Chamath’s work is excellent thought leadership — rigorous, visionary, and worth reading for anyone interested in the space economy. I respect the depth and long-term conviction. In markets, different time horizons create healthy dialogue. His piece reinforces why SpaceX is a landmark company; my experience keeps me focused on disciplined capital allocation amid today’s structural shifts.

Adnan Obuz Approach to Capital Markets Discipline

With extensive experience across global exchanges, my focus remains on asymmetric risk-reward setups. This means stepping away from euphoric crowds and preparing for rotations into undervalued areas, such as resilient mining and resource plays on the TSXV where AI tools can uncover real value.

Custom strategies built around volume, imbalances, and session structure help maintain edge without getting caught in the noise.

Practical Frameworks for Investors

Audit portfolio concentration ahead of major liquidity events.
Monitor for rotation opportunities once hype cools.
Build watchlists focused on rational valuations and strong moats.

These steps have served well through multiple market phases and continue to guide decisions at HireIR for junior mining companies seeking modern IR approaches.

Looking Forward Positively

SpaceX represents remarkable innovation, and its progress will be fascinating to follow. By maintaining patience, we open doors to thoughtful participation at more attractive points. This mindset supports sustainable growth across capital markets.

Last updated: 2026-06-11

Adnan Obuz (Edward Obuz) is the founder of HireIR, a Toronto-based AI-powered investor relations firm serving junior and mid-tier mining companies. With deep capital markets experience, he builds custom trading systems, advises on strategy, and helps leaders establish digital authority. Based in Toronto with international roots, he values disciplined execution, wellness, and cultural engagement.

Why Adnan Obuz Is Skipping the SpaceX IPO Hype in 2026 – Smarter Timing for Capital Markets Success